Spring has certainly turned up the heat across Knoxville and much of East Tennessee, with unseasonably warm temperatures continuing to build across the region. After a cooler start to the season, we’re now looking at near record high temperatures through Saturday, gusty winds, and a major shift in the weather pattern arriving by Sunday.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY
Warm air is surging across the Southeast, with Knoxville seeing afternoon highs climb into the upper 70s and low 80s through the end of the week. These temperatures are close to record territory for late March, and they’re part of a broader pattern driven by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge is locking in dry, sunny weather and allowing the atmosphere to heat up quickly each day. It’s feeling more like May than the end of March in East Tennessee.
STORMS STAY TO OUR WEST – FOR NOW
While East Tennessee stays dry and warm for now, areas to our west are in the crosshairs of a serious storm system. From Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley and up into the Midwest, strong to severe storms are expected over the next couple of days. These storms will bring the threat of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. On top of that, these same areas are forecast to receive between 4 to 7 inches of rain, leading to potential flash flooding and river flooding issues.
These hazardous conditions will stretch from central Texas through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, creating dangerous travel and outdoor conditions. This is a multi-day event that is likely to make headlines.
STORMS ARRIVE IN EAST TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY
By Sunday, the strong ridge over the Southeast finally begins to break down, allowing the storm system to push into Knoxville and the rest of East Tennessee. While the worst of the severe weather is expected to stay west of us, we are still looking at a round of moderate to heavy rainfall and the possibility of strong to isolated severe storms.
Rainfall amounts in Knoxville are expected to range from 1 to 2 inches, which could lead to brief localized flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. The timing of these storms looks to line up with late Sunday into early Monday, potentially impacting the Monday morning commute with wet roads and gusty winds.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK
After the rain and storms move through, much colder air settles into East Tennessee for the first full week of April. Temperatures will take a dramatic dive, with highs in the 50s and overnight lows near or below freezing. This kind of pattern is typical of early spring, where warm and cold air masses frequently battle for control.
Morning frost is possible several days next week, which could threaten early blooming plants and sensitive vegetation. If you’ve already started spring planting, you’ll want to cover those plants or bring them indoors to avoid frost damage.
ABOVE AND BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST
Looking past the 7 Day Forecast, the Climate Prediction Center has issues a forecast based on probabilities.
These maps don’t show you how far above or below, but rather an idea of how strong the signal is.
STAY WEATHER ALERT & PREPARE FOR THE CHANGES AHEAD
With big temperature swings, strong winds, and the potential for severe weather this weekend, it’s important to stay informed. As we track the storm system and incoming cold front, be sure to:
✅ Check back for daily weather updates
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📲 Stay ahead of the storm—follow eastTNweather for the latest East Tennessee weather updates, severe weather alerts, and long-range forecasts!
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts, and stay safe this weekend as the storms roll in!