Knoxville weather is bringing the heat today with near-record high temperatures and gusty winds, but changes are just around the corner. While East Tennessee enjoys dry conditions and spring-like warmth for now, a powerful storm system continues to brew to our west—and it’s heading our way by the end of the weekend. From record-breaking heat to severe storms and then a major temperature drop, it’s a full rollercoaster forecast ahead for East Tennessee.
WARM AND WINDY IN KNOXVILLE & ALL OF EAST TENNESSEE
As a strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the southeastern United States, Knoxville is basking in sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. Afternoon highs are soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s across the region, coming very close to daily records. This warm stretch feels more like late spring or early summer, and residents are making the most of it with outdoor plans and events.
But with that warmth comes wind. Today’s Knoxville weather includes breezy and gusty conditions, with wind speeds reaching 20 to 30 mph at times. These gusts are strong enough to blow around unsecured objects and make driving tricky for high-profile vehicles. Fire danger is also elevated due to the dry air and wind combination, so outdoor burning is discouraged.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO OUR WEST – FOR NOW
While Knoxville is spared from the immediate threat of severe weather today, areas just to our west are facing a dangerous setup. Middle Tennessee and West Tennessee are under the gun for significant severe weather as a potent storm system ramps up over the Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains.
Storms in those regions are expected to bring:
Damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 mph
Large hail capable of causing property and vehicle damageTornadoes, including the risk for strong and long-track tornadoes
Flash flooding and general flooding from excessive rainfall
Forecast models continue to show 4 to 7 inches of rainfall across parts of Arkansas, western Tennessee, Mississippi, and Missouri, which will lead to a heightened flood threat over the next several days.
STORM REACHES EAST TENNESSEE ON SUNDAY
As the ridge begins to break down by the end of the weekend, this powerful storm system will start to shift eastward. Knoxville and East Tennessee will begin to see increasing cloud cover on Saturday night, followed by showers and storms moving in on Sunday.
Rainfall totals across East Tennessee, including Knoxville, are expected to range between 1 and 2 inches. This will significantly raise the risk of flooding and flash flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. While the main threat of tornadoes and large hail will stay west of the region, we can’t rule out the chance for a few strong storms Sunday afternoon and evening.
With heavy rainfall expected over a relatively short period of time, travel could become hazardous by Sunday evening and into early Monday. The Monday morning commute could be affected by lingering rain, ponding on roads, and gusty winds. Make sure to monitor weather updates closely as the weekend progresses.
COOLER AIR RETURNS TO EAST TENNESSEE NEXT WEEK
Once the storm system clears East Tennessee late Sunday night or early Monday, much colder air will move into the region behind the cold front. Temperatures will take a sharp dip, with highs on Monday only reaching the low to mid 50s across Knoxville and surrounding communities.
By Tuesday and Wednesday morning, lows could fall near freezing in many parts of East Tennessee. Morning frost is likely, especially in sheltered valleys and rural areas. If you’ve already started gardening or planted sensitive vegetation, now is the time to start thinking about how to protect them from frost damage.
This sudden shift from near-record highs to freezing lows highlights the dramatic weather swings that are common in East Tennessee during the spring season.
KNOXVILLE AND EAST TENNESSEE OUTLOOK: WHAT TO EXPECT
Today: Near-record highs with gusty winds, fire danger elevated
Saturday: Warm and breezy, increasing clouds late
Sunday: 1-2″ of rain with flood and flash flood risks, a few strong storms possible
Next Week: Much colder with highs in the 50s, morning lows near freezing, risk of morning frost
ABOVE AND BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST
Looking past the 7 Day Forecast, the Climate Prediction Center has issues a forecast based on probabilities.
These maps don’t show you how far above or below, but rather an idea of how strong the signal is.
BE PREPARED AND WEATHER ALERT
This is a high-impact weather pattern that will affect millions from the Southern Plains to the Eastern U.S., including here in Knoxville. Residents should stay weather-aware throughout the weekend and into early next week. Download a trusted weather app, turn on emergency alerts, and have a plan if flooding becomes an issue in your area.
As always, check in daily for updated Knoxville weather forecasts, radar updates, and storm tracking information. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts, and get ready for some big changes ahead.